Political Calculus

American Political Dynamics

I have been following American politics most of my adult life, nearly 7 decades, that includes observations, experiences and the study of history.  I must admit that the present political situation falls outside all the political norms of the past.  And that is saying quite a lot given the Korean War, the Cold War, the McCarthy witch-hunts, the assassinations of JFK, MLK and RFK, the Viet Nam War, the demise of Richard Nixon, the Central American debacles, the Oklahoma City Bombing, 9/11, and even the elections of 2000, 2016, and 2020 and Covid, not to mention several economic crises.  In all of those cases no matter what political course was chosen; I could see what political calculus was at play, and it made some sense.

I can understand the competition of partisan politics, even though it can often be quite counter-productive.  I understand that there might be long term goals behind a decision or policy.  I also understand short term goals to deal with what might appear to be a crisis.  All of these suggest some political calculus that will end up with an equation that will balance in the end; in other words, a policy that can be matched with the ideals and goals of an American democracy.

But we find ourselves now in the midst of a choice of direction, a policy choice by the administration of the current president, Joe Biden, which totally confounds me.  That policy is to not only support the current Israeli destruction of a captive civilian population in Gaza, but also to provide the weapons, intelligence, financial support, political support and to even run interference for Israel in the United Nations and with the international community.  Operating more like a rogue nation than the level-headed, impartial supporter of democracy and human rights in the world, operating from at least some remnant of moral high ground, we, as a nation, run the risk of ruining our international reputation as a nation of decency, a nation that cares for human dignity.

This part of the calculus get us no points, no benefits internationally, except as an example of a powerful nation that disregards any rules, laws or moral imperatives on a whim, to serve some undisclosed, cynical and callus idea of national interest.  As far as I can see, only those supporting imposing raw power into human conflicts could begin to support this position.  Those who would use raw power that way are not the kinds of leaders or nations I would be proud to list as our supporters.

The domestic calculus is equally disturbing.  There is no apparent difference between the two presidential candidates on their support of Netanyahu’s demonic plan for the imprisoned and defenseless Palestinians in Gaza.  So, it is not some partisan advantage that is at work here.

As far as the support of the general public, it is clear that a sizable portion of that public is aghast at the Biden administration’s position vis-a-vis Netanyahu and Gaza, and are clearly showing their disagreement with demonstrations, with the support of unions, cities, communities, organizations and then with the uprisings on college campuses in opposition to these policies.  One would think that that calculus would at least suggest a policy pause to reconsider public opinion in what we call our democracy.  With Mr. Biden showing no pause or deviation, that part of the equation is a negative balance.

Not only that, but we are facing a monumental presidential election in November between Mr. Biden and a Republican candidate, Mr. Trump, who, although he agrees with our policy toward Israel, seemingly is willing to gut the judicial system to not only stop his legal issues, but to wreak vengeance on a judicial system the had the affrontery to question the actions and activities he chose.

In addition, it appears that Mr. Trump would like to run the nation, no longer as a democracy, but more like USA, Inc., with the economy and profit as its goal, and with Mr. Trump as the CEO, who, of course, is also invested in many other money-making schemes at the same time, a kind of diversification.  This would be the final step in the progression we have watched over several decade as we have turned into an oligarchy with big money determining most of what happens in this nation, politically and materially.  You only need to have watched the growth of income inequality climb to unprecedented levels to see the change from democracy to oligarchy.  Mr. Trump would also further deregulate businesses allowing for the even quicker slide into an irreversible climate crisis.  But oh, the money to be made. 

I must add that Mr. Biden’s foreign policy of military build-ups and confrontations, sending weapons to allies like Israel and Ukraine and benefiting from the huge profits in the military-industrial complex, is also creating havoc with the climate crisis.  His policies do not begin to hint at creating the cooperative connections needed to combat climate change.

The real difference between the two candidates is that one wants to continue with a democratic tradition, although one might question it remaining functionality, and the other would seem to be willing to simply walk away from that democratic tradition, replacing it with a business model.

So, Biden ends up with a positive number in the equation of governance style, democracy or business as usual.

And finally, in an election that is most likely to be very close, Mr. Biden is willing to run the very clear risk of antagonizing an entire set of voters.  These are the voters who are opposed to his Gaza policy, not only because it is so clearly racist, but because it is being done in our good name and with our tax money.  That feels like a betrayal of all the things we grew up thinking were the very basis of this great nation, those things that were worth defending in the past.  Not only that, but those who dare to speak up against that Gaza policy are being harassed, intimidated, and in some cases punished for doing what a democracy is designed to support, speaking up to influence the direction of the nation, when necessary.

Those voters may well, not vote for Trump, but they may find it difficult, if not impossible to vote to reelect a president who supports what is happening in Gaza.  What to do if you are a Palestinian-American, or even an Arab-American or a Muslim-American; or if you have experienced racism in this nation, or if you just see this as a horrible change in direction for this nation.  The temptation to not vote for any candidate for president in the November election will be great.

There is no political calculus that justifies the direction that Mr. Biden has chosen for this nation.  And the final equation is nowhere near balanced.  It does not add up to any risk that is worth the price we are being asked to pay.

Politicians deal with the complex calculus of politics every day.  They usually understand what needs to be done to finally balance the equation.  Something is missing here.

It would be nice to have a president who understood and upheld the sacred trust that position entails in a flourishing democracy.

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