Could Harris Deliver the October Surprise America Needs?
American Political Dynamics
We have had a history of October surprises, especially just before an upcoming election in early November. These political surprises are intended to significantly change the dynamics of the impending election. Some of those surprises have been major like the Nixon campaign undermining the Vietnamese peace negotiations in 1968, or Reagan’s campaign slowing down the Iran hostage release in 1980, or smaller ones like Bush’s DWI before the election in 2000 or the reopening of the FBI investigation of Hilary Clinton just before the 2016 election.
Today, with the stakes just as high, foreign policy could be the key battleground where an October surprise alters the election’s trajectory.
Goodness knows we could use something that would change the dynamics of this upcoming election.
The Elephant in the Room
This election seems to be stuck in a strange limbo between opposing ideas on how this nation should move forward in the 21st century. Meanwhile, there is an undeniable elephant in the room: the unspoken reality of the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the seemingly unchecked destructiveness of Israel under Netanyahu’s leadership.
Though much of the world perceives this destructiveness as needing restraint under international law—if for no other reason than to prevent escalation into a broader Middle East conflict—the Biden administration has not only condoned Netanyahu’s actions but also supported them by providing weapons and even troops for his use. Furthermore, the administration has run interference for Netanyahu, blocking any U.N. or other international intervention or control, not to mention that it makes a vote for Harris problematic for an entire set of potential voters.
This is all happening in our name and with our taxpayer dollars, despite a large number of U.S. citizens opposing these actions. Even mainstream media outlets rarely mention Gaza, or the destruction caused by Netanyahu’s forces. It is rare to see this conflict through any eyes other than those of the Israelis or their apologists and almost never from the perspective of the Palestinians or even allowing any Palestinian voices to be included in the dialogue.
There seems to be a pretense that what’s happening in Gaza and the Middle East doesn’t really exist and certainly has no bearing on the upcoming election. This illusion has created significant anxiety among a large portion of the electorate, resulting in the perception of a very close election. What will it take for the Democrats to recognize the consequences of this policy both domestically, including this upcoming election, and internationally with our loss of moral standing.
There are many voters who believe they have no choice in this election since both candidates appear to be in full support of everything Netanyahu is doing. And even though Netanyahu would prefer to have a Trump win, Biden continues his stubborn support of Netanyahu. What will it take for the Democrats to recognize the consequences of this policy?  Might it include our involvement in an Israeli attack on Iran before the election?
Potential for Change: Opportunities Lost and Voters Stranded without a Candidate
When Biden decided to step aside and pass the torch to Kamala Harris, much of the public was overjoyed, hoping for an opportunity to embrace change and find new resolutions to long-standing issues. However, to the dismay of many, Harris soon appeared to adopt Biden’s policies, including blind support for Netanyahu and his continued actions in Gaza and the Middle East. For many, this looked like more of the same—an extension of old politics rather than a breath of fresh air and new solutions.
The polls show that it is still a very close election, and our Netanyahu policy could be a potential linchpin.  At issue is that those opposed to what is happening in Gaza and the Middle East now find themselves without a candidate they can vote for in good conscience—save for Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, who is calling for an end to the war in Gaza. It’s not that these voters are likely to turn to Trump, but rather that they cannot support Harris or the Democrats if it means endorsing Netanyahu’s actions. For some, supporting Harris feels like endorsing continued violence in Gaza and across the region.
The October Surprise
The October Surprise could be Harris breaking from Biden’s stance on Netanyahu to announce her intention to review our Middle East policy, including a pause in the supply of weapons to Israel and a demand of an immediate ceasefire—not only in Gaza but across the Middle East. She could also call for immediate humanitarian aid and the beginning of efforts to rebuild Gaza, and perhaps even Lebanon.
This move would be reminiscent of Hubert Humphrey’s break with Lyndon B. Johnson’s Vietnam policies in the closing weeks of the 1968 election, which turned a sure Nixon win into a very close race.
Risks and Rewards
What are the risks with this shift for Harris? She might lose the economic clout of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) which has grown more politically potent over the last few decades, but it is much too late in the game to be able to make any significant difference in the election. She might lose some Jewish voters, but my sense is that she would gain far more Jewish voters than she would lose since there are many Jewish American voices who have joined the protests for a cease fire and to end our military support of Netanyahu.
What are the potential rewards?  On the positive side, a nationwide sigh of relief would follow as the country finally acknowledges the elephant in the room which is the reality of the destruction of Gaza and the aggressiveness of Netanyahu in the West Bank as well as in the entire region. It would also be a relief for the international community as it would realign us with prevailing international opinion and as well as international law. Voters who felt politically homeless would return to Harris’s camp, potentially giving her and the Democrats a convincing victory.
If Harris chooses not to take this bold step, the U.S. risks entrenching its complicity in these ongoing humanitarian disasters, alienating both domestic and international support. The world is watching!
Leadership and Courage
If Harris truly represents change, new directions, and the younger generation’s vision for the future, she must demonstrate the courage to abandon the old politics. By confronting uncomfortable truths about U.S. foreign policy, Harris could lead America into a new era of moral leadership and diplomacy.
Let Harris be bold. Let her deliver the October surprise, renew the American spirit, and honor the legacy of those who built this nation and its democracy.
Closing Thoughts
The opportunity for an October surprise is at hand. The question is whether Harris will seize it, or if America will remain trapped in old patterns, with devastating consequences. With such a bold action Kamala Harris can win this election and revitalize America and begin to provide a path to restore our ideals and reestablish our international humanitarian reputation.
